The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the most comprehensive surveys of its kind, both for its number of respondents and for the range of economic variables it monitors. IMA and ACCA members from around the world share their insider views on the macro-economic environment as they see it. Within themed countries and regions, the GECS is regarded as a good predictor of GDP growth. Its correlations with the VIX, or “fear,” index are well-established. It is a trusted source for gauging the overall performance of the global economy.

Three levels of analysis are provided:

  • Global: Providing an overall picture of respondent confidence
  • Thematic: Weighing in on socio-political trends
  • Regional: Interpreting policy changes, government actions, and current events in 9 regions

Key Findings of the First Quarter 2024 Survey

  • Confidence improved for the first time since Q1 2023, but concerns about costs rose. Confidence is now just above its historical average.
  • Both “fear indices,” measured by concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business, continue to not look alarming by historical standards.
  • Global concerns about operating costs rose, although they remain below their recent peak. Concerns about costs eased again in the advanced economies of North America and Western Europe while remaining elevated by historical standards. By contrast, cost concerns rose noticeably in Africa, Asia Pacific, and South Asia.
  • There were gains in confidence in most regions, with only the Middle East recording a modest decline from the high-level from last quarter.
  • The rise in confidence in Asia Pacific was the third largest on record and the moderate rise in confidence in Western Europe suggests that growth could be gradually improving after the weakness of recent quarters.