The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the most comprehensive surveys of its kind, both for its number of respondents and for the range of economic variables it monitors. IMA and ACCA members from around the world share their insider views on the macro-economic environment as they see it. Within themed countries and regions, the GECS is regarded as a good predictor of GDP growth. Its correlations with the VIX, or “fear,” index are well-established. It is a trusted source for gauging the overall performance of the global economy.
Three levels of analysis are provided:
- Global: Providing an overall picture of respondent confidence
- Thematic: Weighing in on socio-political trends
- Regional: Interpreting policy changes, government actions, and current events in 9 regions
Key Findings of the Third Quarter 2023 Survey
- Confidence declined for the second consecutive quarter but remains higher than a year earlier and only slightly below its long-term average.
- Both “fear indices,” measured by concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business, ticked up slightly on the customer side, but fears about suppliers declined to the lowest since 2019. Neither series looks alarming by historical standards.
- North America’s confidence dropped 20 points for the quarter, driven by confidence in the U.S.
- Confidence in Asia Pacific saw a modest improvement, with policy easing positively impacting the Chinese economy. Confidence in South Asia edged higher, but is down sharply over the past year. Sentiment fell again in Western Europe, reflective of weak euro and UK economies.