The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is one of the most comprehensive surveys of its kind, both for its number of respondents and for the range of economic variables it monitors. IMA and ACCA members from around the world share their insider views on the macro-economic environment as they see it. Within themed countries and regions, the GECS is regarded as a good predictor of GDP growth. Its correlations with the VIX, or “fear,” index are well-established. It is a trusted source for gauging the overall performance of the global economy.
Three levels of analysis are provided:
- Global: Providing an overall picture of respondent confidence
- Thematic: Weighing in on socio-political trends
- Regional: Interpreting policy changes, government actions, and current events in 9 regions
Key Findings of the Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey
- Confidence declined for the third consecutive quarter, which is consistent with a further moderation in global growth. However, there are no suggestions of a major downturn in the future.
- Both “fear indices,” measured by concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business, was up slightly again on the customer side, but fears about suppliers continued to ease. Neither series looks alarming by historical standards.
- After a large fall in Q3, confidence in North America rebounded sharply and there were improvements in South Asia and the Middle East as well.
- Confidence fell in Western Europe for the third consecutive quarter, with Asia Pacific and Africa also seeing declines and Africa erasing the gains made earlier in 2023.
- Globally, accounting professionals ranked economic risks, talent retention, and regulatory change as their top three risk priorities.